Flooding in the UK: Past, present, and future

With sea levels rising because of climate change, and the weather becoming more extreme and erratic, the threat of flooding in the UK is ever-increasing. 

The following information has been compiled to shed light on the threat of flooding in the UK and what the future may hold.

Key flooding statistics

One in six properties in England (around 5.7 million properties) are at risk of flooding.

2024 experienced the wettest period since records began.

Five of the 10 wettest years for the UK have occurred in the 21st century.

Statistically, your home is more likely to be flooded than burgled.

The UK is 10% wetter than it was 30 years ago.

How many floods happen a year in the UK?

The UK experiences numerous floods each year, with some years being worse than others. While it’s difficult to provide an exact number, there’s evidence to suggest that the UK is getting increasingly wetter.

The UK has experienced a steady increase in rainfall in recent years, leading to more frequent flooding. The latest State of the UK Climate report confirms this trend, revealing that the most recent decade (2014–2023) has been 2% wetter than 1991–2020 and 10% wetter than 1961–1990.

The report also shows that sea levels are rising, with numerous sites across the UK experiencing their highest or second-highest sea levels on record since 1916. 

According to Met Office figures, October 2022 to March 2024 was the wettest 18-month period in England since the organisation began collecting data more than 180 years ago, in 1836.

Major floods from the past decade

England has experienced a major flood almost every year since 2007. Some of the biggest floods from the past 10 years include:

2015-2016 Winter Floods

Estimated cost: £1.6 billion

The 2015-2016 Winter Floods were a significant flooding event that affected large parts of England and Wales. Areas such as Cumbria, Lancashire, Yorkshire, and Somerset were particularly hard hit. The floods caused widespread damage to homes, businesses, and infrastructure, with many communities experiencing severe disruption. The River Ouse in York and the River Severn in Shrewsbury reached record levels, leading to significant flooding in these areas.

2019-2020 Winter Floods

Estimated cost: £333 million

The 2019-2020 Winter Floods affected several regions across the UK, including Yorkshire and the Humber, the Midlands, and South West England. Areas like Doncaster, South Yorkshire, and Somerset were particularly hard hit, with the River Don in Yorkshire reaching record levels, contributing to the severity of the flooding in the region.

2020-2021 Winter Floods

Estimated cost: £78 million

The 2020-2021 Winter Floods impacted large parts of the UK, particularly England and Wales. Areas like the Midlands, East Anglia, and the North West were severely affected. The storms Christoph and Dennis brought heavy rainfall, leading to widespread flooding.

Areas most at risk of flooding in the UK

There are 5.7 million properties in England at risk of flooding, according to a recent Government report.

This number is exacerbated by the vulnerability of specific communities. Research by the University of Manchester for Friends of the Earth identified that over 700,000 individuals residing in the 10% most socially vulnerable neighbourhoods in the UK – predominantly in Birmingham, Manchester, Liverpool, Bradford, and Hackney – are at particular risk due to their location and potential lack of flood defences.

Low-income households are especially susceptible to the severe impacts of flooding, often lacking the financial resources for flood-resistant measures or insurance coverage.

More broadly, different parts of the UK are more susceptible to different types of flooding than others. For example:

Areas affected by coastal flooding

Coastal locations such as Cornwall, Peterborough, Hull, Great Yarmouth, as well as coastal parts of Kent and East Sussex, are particularly vulnerable to coastal flooding caused by the rising sea levels and the gradual deterioration of sea defences.

Areas affected by riverside flooding

Towns and villages located next to rivers are at constant risk from tidal surges from the sea and rivers bursting their banks following spells of heavy rainfall. Areas of the UK most at risk from river flooding include, but are not limited to, Somerset, Yorkshire, Essex, Kent, Cambridgeshire, Lincolnshire and Norfolk. 

Areas affected by surface water flooding

Flash flooding caused by damage to drainage infrastructure often impacts urban areas, because of the amount of strain put on drainage systems. Areas often impacted by surface flooding include but are not limited to Buckinghamshire, Wiltshire, Merseyside, Yorkshire, Cumbria, and parts of Lincolnshire. 

Will flooding get worse in the future?

The UK is facing a growing threat from flooding. Scientists warn that the UK is increasingly vulnerable to flash floods. By 2100, annual rainfall is projected to increase by 10% compared to the 1986-2005 baseline. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts a global temperature rise of 3.5°C – 4.8°C by 2080 if carbon emissions remain high. This scenario could expose an additional 250,000 to 400,000 Europeans to river flooding, with the UK among the most affected regions.